Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1578 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

UA 1578 · SEA → SFO

departs 7:00 AM PT · arrives 9:18 AM PT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts −12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 57% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1578 · SEA → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?