Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1586 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

UA 1586 · DFW → IAH

departs 9:46 AM CT · arrives 11:03 AM CT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts −19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ Visibility down to 1.5 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ 9am departures from DFW are often late

↓ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.04 in

IAH (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.47 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1586 · DFW → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?