Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1696 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

UA 1696 · IAH → MSY

departs 8:30 PM CT · arrives 9:49 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±1 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MSY?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1 mi, 2.7 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ 8pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.47 in

MSY (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1696 · IAH → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?