Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1718 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

UA 1718 · LAX → KOA

departs 5:10 PM PT · arrives 7:47 PM HT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to KOA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from LAX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ This flight has been late 12% of the time recently

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility3 mi Precipnone

KOA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1718 · LAX → KOA

Odds over time

How late will it get to KOA?