Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1789 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

UA 1789 · IAD → SAT

departs 8:25 AM ET · arrives 10:59 AM CT

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at SAT that day

↑ SAT is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ Arrivals into SAT at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

SAT (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precip0.76 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1789 · IAD → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?