Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1814 LANDED 6:37 PM PT, ~26 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

UA 1814 · EWR → SEA

took off 3:53 PM ET · landed 6:37 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 8pm departures from EWR are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.04 in

SEA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1814 · EWR → SEA

Odds over time