Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1815 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

UA 1815 · SFO → BNA

departs 11:59 PM PT · arrives 6:37 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at BNA that day

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at SFO that day

↓ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1815 · SFO → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?