Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1821 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

UA 1821 · ORD → LGA

departs 2:00 PM CT · arrives 5:22 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±0 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ UA's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.10 in

LGA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1821 · ORD → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?