Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1976 LANDED 9:21 PM MT, ~1 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

UA 1976 · IAH → TUS

took off 9:09 PM CT · landed 9:21 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ Visibility down to 1.5 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.47 in

TUS (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1976 · IAH → TUS

Odds over time