Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2002 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

UA 2002 · BOS → SFO

departs 9:07 AM ET · arrives 12:34 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±3 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2002 · BOS → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?