Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2017 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

UA 2017 · MCO → SFO

departs 10:00 AM ET · arrives 12:44 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at SFO that day

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

SFO (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2017 · MCO → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?