Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Friday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 201 LANDED 6:39 PM CHST, ~37 MIN LATE

Friday, October 2

UA 201 · HNL → GUM

took off 3:51 PM HT · landed 6:39 PM ChST (scheduled 2:25 PM HT → 6:05 PM ChST)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at GUM more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to GUM?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 45 kt, cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.9 in of rain forecast at GUM that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 2pm departures from HNL are often late

↓ GUM usually runs smoothly

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.28 in

GUM (destination) Gusts45 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip2.19 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 201 · HNL → GUM

Odds over time

How late did it get to GUM?