Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2116 LANDED 11:34 PM CT, ~10 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

UA 2116 · IAD → DFW

took off 9:49 PM ET · landed 11:34 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±2 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Other factors

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.27 in

DFW (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2116 · IAD → DFW

Odds over time