Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2161 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

UA 2161 · IAH → BOS

departs 4:40 PM CT · arrives 9:44 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from IAH are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.21 in

BOS (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2161 · IAH → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?