Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2164 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

UA 2164 · DEN → SEA

departs 2:00 PM MT · arrives 4:00 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ 2pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Gusts to 31 kt forecast at DEN that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2164 · DEN → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?