Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2165 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

UA 2165 · IAH → BNA

departs 4:20 PM CT · arrives 6:27 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±0 pts +20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1.5 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ Cloud base down to 1,433 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BNA that day

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip1.01 in

BNA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.64 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2165 · IAH → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?