Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2185 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

UA 2185 · DEN → PNS

departs 10:20 AM MT · arrives 2:15 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at PNS more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PNS?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 1.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PNS that day

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Gusts to 31 kt forecast at DEN that day

↓ PNS usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PNS (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.53 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2185 · DEN → PNS

Odds over time

How late will it get to PNS?