Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2195 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

UA 2195 · ORD → BDL

departs 11:03 AM CT · arrives 2:24 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at BDL more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BDL?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at BDL

↓ UA's recent on-time record

↓ BDL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.10 in

BDL (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2195 · ORD → BDL

Odds over time

How late will it get to BDL?