Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2228 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

UA 2228 · MCI → IAH

departs 8:30 AM CT · arrives 10:38 AM CT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts −22 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1.5 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ IAH is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 8am departures from MCI are usually not late

Weather at each end

MCI (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

IAH (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.47 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2228 · MCI → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?