UA 2278 · SFO → ORD

departs 10:38 PM PT · arrives 5:01 AM CT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts +22 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
28%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2278 · SFO → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?