Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2305 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

UA 2305 · SBA → SFO

departs 1:58 PM PT · arrives 3:08 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

47% chance · ±0 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
9%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 45% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ UA's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

SBA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2305 · SBA → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?