Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2322 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

UA 2322 · SFO → MFR

departs 10:37 AM PT · arrives 12:04 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at MFR more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MFR?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MFR

↓ UA's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

MFR (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2322 · SFO → MFR

Odds over time

How late will it get to MFR?