Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2431 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

UA 2431 · SFO → PHL

departs 8:38 AM PT · arrives 5:17 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ This flight has been late 15% of the time recently

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.36 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2431 · SFO → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?