Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2443 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

UA 2443 · ORD → JAX

departs 6:19 PM CT · arrives 9:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to JAX?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Visibility down to 0.75 mi, 2.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at JAX that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ JAX usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.10 in

JAX (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.86 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2443 · ORD → JAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAX?