Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2497 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

UA 2497 · MSY → IAD

departs 12:17 PM CT · arrives 3:50 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at MSY that day

↓ This flight has been late 10% of the time recently

↓ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.12 in

IAD (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.27 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2497 · MSY → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?