Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2624 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

UA 2624 · EWR → SMF

departs 6:19 PM ET · arrives 9:48 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±0 pts +19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
16%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from EWR are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.04 in

SMF (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2624 · EWR → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?