Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2629 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

UA 2629 · MCO → EWR

departs 4:07 PM ET · arrives 7:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±0 pts +21 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
9%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from MCO are often late

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.09 in

EWR (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2629 · MCO → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?