Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2653 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

UA 2653 · TUL → ORD

departs 7:15 AM CT · arrives 9:17 AM CT

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 63h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±4 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.4 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at TUL that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 7am departures from TUL are usually not late

Weather at each end

TUL (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.4 mi Precip0.31 in

ORD (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility3.66667 mi Precip0.43 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2653 · TUL → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?