Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Friday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2656 LANDED 9:28 PM MT, ~11 MIN EARLY

Friday, October 2

UA 2656 · SNA → DEN

took off 6:39 PM PT · landed 9:28 PM MT (scheduled 6:26 PM PT → 9:47 PM MT)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DEN?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from SNA are often late

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ This flight has been late 13% of the time recently

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2656 · SNA → DEN

Odds over time

How late did it get to DEN?