Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2682 LANDED 12:05 AM ET, ~3 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

UA 2682 · IAH → LGA

took off 8:15 PM CT · landed 12:05 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1 mi, 2.7 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ 8pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.47 in

LGA (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2682 · IAH → LGA

Odds over time