Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2753 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

UA 2753 · ORD → BUF

departs 7:15 AM CT · arrives 10:00 AM ET

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 63h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±3 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,400 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at BUF that day

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ BUF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility3.66667 mi Precip0.43 in

BUF (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.71 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2753 · ORD → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?