Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2754 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

UA 2754 · MRY → DEN

departs 5:00 AM PT · arrives 8:32 AM MT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at MRY that day

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from MRY are usually not late

Weather at each end

MRY (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2754 · MRY → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?