Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Friday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2764 LANDED 6:21 PM PT, ~42 MIN LATE

Friday, October 2

UA 2764 · SFO → BUR

took off 5:29 PM PT · landed 6:21 PM PT (scheduled 4:15 PM PT → 5:42 PM PT)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±1 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to BUR?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ 4pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR

↓ UA's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

BUR (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2764 · SFO → BUR

Odds over time

How late did it get to BUR?