Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Friday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2781 LANDED 8:34 PM MT, ~106 MIN EARLY

Friday, October 2

UA 2781 · DEN → RAP

took off 7:51 PM MT · landed 8:34 PM MT (scheduled 9:10 PM MT → 10:25 PM MT)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at RAP more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late did it get to RAP?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ This flight has been late 52% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ RAP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RAP (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2781 · DEN → RAP

Odds over time

How late did it get to RAP?