Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2783 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

UA 2783 · IAH → LGA

departs 6:31 PM CT · arrives 11:14 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±2 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↑ 6pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Visibility down to 1.5 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ UA's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.47 in

LGA (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2783 · IAH → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?