Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2784 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

UA 2784 · ORD → BNA

departs 5:58 PM CT · arrives 7:44 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

53% chance · ±2 pts +20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BNA that day

↑ 5pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.10 in

BNA (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2784 · ORD → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?