Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2790 LANDED 9:09 PM ET, ~12 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

UA 2790 · ORD → EWR

took off 6:34 PM CT · landed 9:09 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

66% chance · ±0 pts +33 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TVC

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.10 in

EWR (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2790 · ORD → EWR

Odds over time