Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2818 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

UA 2818 · PDX → SFO

departs 7:00 AM PT · arrives 8:56 AM PT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 53% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2818 · PDX → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?