Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2826 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

UA 2826 · JAX → IAD

departs 11:48 AM ET · arrives 1:44 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 8:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at JAX that day

↓ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are usually not late

↓ 11am departures from JAX are usually not late

Weather at each end

JAX (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.87 in

IAD (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.47 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2826 · JAX → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?