Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2839 LANDED 11:28 PM CT, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

UA 2839 · SFO → OMA

took off 6:40 PM PT · landed 11:28 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±1 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at SFO that day

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

OMA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2839 · SFO → OMA

Odds over time