Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2840 LANDED 12:05 AM CT, ~16 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

UA 2840 · EWR → DFW

took off 9:51 PM ET · landed 12:05 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

63% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Gusts to 28 kt forecast at EWR that day

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DFW that day

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.04 in

DFW (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2840 · EWR → DFW

Odds over time