Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2847 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

UA 2847 · ORD → RAP

departs 8:45 AM CT · arrives 10:24 AM MT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at RAP more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts −15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RAP?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.10 in

RAP (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2847 · ORD → RAP

Odds over time

How late will it get to RAP?