UA 2854 · BUR → SFO

took off 8:49 PM PT · landed 9:43 PM PT (scheduled 8:22 PM PT → 9:50 PM PT)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±2 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late did it get to SFO?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 44% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ 8pm departures from BUR are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR

Weather at each end

BUR (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2854 · BUR → SFO

Odds over time

How late did it get to SFO?