Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 404 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

UA 404 · SAT → IAH

departs 4:18 PM CT · arrives 5:25 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

65% chance · ±0 pts +25 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
30%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
26%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at SAT that day

↑ Visibility down to 1.5 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↓ SAT usually runs smoothly

↓ UA's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precip1.83 in

IAH (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip1.28 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 404 · SAT → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?