Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 436 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

UA 436 · PIT → SFO

departs 5:23 PM ET · arrives 7:51 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at PIT that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at SFO that day

↓ PIT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PIT (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.29 in

SFO (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 436 · PIT → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?