Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 440 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

UA 440 · ORD → BWI

departs 6:20 PM CT · arrives 9:26 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ BWI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.10 in

BWI (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 440 · ORD → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?