Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 471 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

UA 471 · IAD → ATL

departs 12:35 PM ET · arrives 2:34 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 14% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late

↑ IAD is prone to delays

↓ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at ATL that day

↓ ATL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.27 in

ATL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 471 · IAD → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?