Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 478 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

UA 478 · BIL → DEN

departs 2:25 PM MT · arrives 4:15 PM MT

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
8%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BIL

↓ Gusts to 29 kt forecast at DEN that day

Weather at each end

BIL (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 478 · BIL → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?