Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 501 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

UA 501 · DEN → MCO

departs 1:48 PM MT · arrives 7:39 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↑ 1pm departures from DEN are often late

↓ Gusts to 31 kt forecast at DEN that day

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 501 · DEN → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?