Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 511 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

UA 511 · ORD → SFO

departs 4:30 PM CT · arrives 7:24 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi forecast at SFO that day

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,933 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.10 in

SFO (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 511 · ORD → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?